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Use whenever the user mentions Kalshi, Polymarket, prediction markets, event contracts, implied probability, expected value / EV, edge, mispricing, arbitrage or price gaps between venues, Kelly...
You have the PredictionMarketsPicks MCP tools (server predictionmarketspicks). They return live Kalshi and Polymarket market data, our model's read where one exists, and a link to the page behind every number. This skill tells you which tool answers which question and how to present what comes back.
tell_user. Every result carries a tell_user sentence written for the reader — show it first, then the detail. Cite the row's url or page_url whenever you quote its number, so the reader can open the live board.wall_kind and an upgrade_url or sign_in_url, present the free part of the answer, then one line: what Pro adds and the link. Do not apologise, do not repeat the pitch.yes_mid_cents of 94.4 means a YES contract costs about 94¢ and pays $1 if it settles YES. Polymarket prices shown by these tools come from its international order book unless a row says otherwise — say which venue when you quote one.| The user asks… | Call | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| "Is 62¢ a good price if I think it's 70%?" / "what's the EV" | calculate_ev {marketPrice: 62, yourProbability: 70} |
Then offer kelly_size for sizing. |
| "How much should I put on it?" / bankroll / Kelly | kelly_size {winProbability, marketPrice, bankroll, fraction} |
fraction: full · half · quarter · eighth (half is the common default; quarter is conservative). Inputs accept 55, "55%", "55¢", 0.55 or American odds. |
| "Convert −150 / 1.67 / 62% to a probability" | convert_probability {value, format} |
format: probability · american · decimal. A cents price is a probability (62¢ → 62%). |
| "Update my estimate after new evidence" | bayes_update {prior, evidence:[{likelihoodIfTrue, likelihoodIfFalse}]} |
Call with {} first to see a worked example. |
| "Is the market above/below the historical base rate?" | base_rate_gap |
Call with {} to list the base-rate ids. |
| "Where do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree?" / arbitrage / price gaps | find_arbitrage |
Free: the largest gaps in full. Label the venue on every price. |
| "What's the market pricing for the next Fed meeting?" | fed_rate_odds |
Returns the next FOMC decision odds and the Kalshi-vs-futures read. Only the NEXT meeting is comparable across venues. |
| "Who wins the Kansas Senate race?" / a governor or House race | race_odds {race: "Kansas"} |
State name, code, slug or district all work. |
| "Show me the whole 2026 Senate map" | senate_map |
35 seats, closest race first. |
| "How's the US economy / macro regime?" | market_pulse |
Composite + regime always; category scores capped for free callers. |
| "What's the ETH / gold 15-minute market doing?" | fifteen_min_board {series: "eth"} |
See the fifteen-minute-desk skill. |
| Kalshi perps: price, leverage, funding, liquidation | perps_board, perp_liquidation {asset, side, leverage} |
See the fifteen-minute-desk skill. |
| "What's Kalshi pricing for the NYC high today?" / temperature markets | weather_board {city: "nyc"} |
Every open daily-high strike in 13 cities, with the settlement station and the forecast beside it. Omit city for all. Free. |
| "Which NHL games does the model like tonight?" | nhl_edge |
Moneyline, puck line, totals, player goals, Stanley Cup futures. |
| Anything NFL: props, best price, ladders, combos, game edges | nfl_prop_board, nfl_ladder, combo_edge, nfl_win_probability, nfl_power_ratings, player_outlook, nfl_edge, nfl_prop_edge |
See the nfl-props-desk skill. |
| Kalshi college football / NFL spread ladders priced out of order | ladder_arb |
The whole board is free; Pro fills the resting orders and net edge. |
| "Any edge on Kalshi right now?" / alerts feed | edge_alerts {feed: "weather,bitcoin,…"} |
Pro gets it live; free callers get the same feed delayed 24 h without the thesis. Say which you are showing. |
| "What's mispriced on Polymarket vs the model?" | scan_mispricings |
Pro. Free callers get the honest headline and the free tool that answers today. |
| Gold / silver / oil / bitcoin model ticket | commodity_edge {commodity} |
Pro. {} lists what is live. |
{} — it answers with a menu and an example_call built from today's data. Never guess an id.tell_user, then the rows. Quote at most the rows the reader asked about; link the page for the rest.next_step when it is there. Many results name the natural next call (nfl_prop_board → nfl_ladder on the top row; calculate_ev → kelly_size). Offer it, don't force it.next_update. When a result says when the board reprices (the next 15-minute window, the next kickoff), tell the reader and don't poll the same tool in a loop.as_of and data_freshness. If the label is aging or stale, say so beside the number.The free board shows one gap right now: NBA New York vs Philadelphia, +15pp, cheaper on Polymarket (international book) — live scanner. Pro returns the whole cross-venue board; sign in with a PredictionMarketsPicks account or see the link in the result.
One line, then move on.
bet → position / trade / contract · bettor → trader · sportsbook → prediction market / venue / exchange · wager → position · "place a bet" → take a position / buy a contract · bookmaker → the market · betting favorite → market favorite.
